Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-07-12
2026-07-12 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 19 games today (4 WNBA, 15 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Dallas Wings over Chicago Sky at 70% (-420) — a clear 70% edge — one of the cleaner spots on the board. Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Dallas Wings to beat Chicago Sky — 70% (-420, Strong lean). A clear 70% edge — one of the cleaner spots on the board.
- Philadelphia Phillies to beat Detroit Tigers — 57% (+114, Lean lean). A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal (3.06 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (2.28 ERA).
- Los Angeles Dodgers to beat Arizona Diamondbacks — 55% (-218, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Emmet Sheehan (4.91 ERA) vs Mitch Bratt (3.00 ERA).
- Milwaukee Brewers to beat Pittsburgh Pirates — 55% (+111, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Paul Skenes (3.58 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.15 ERA).
- Boston Red Sox to beat New York Mets — 55% (-107, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Zach Thornton (4.35 ERA) vs Payton Tolle (3.14 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Robert Gasser (Milwaukee Brewers) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 4.15 ERA)
- Ketel Marte (Arizona Diamondbacks) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .259 AVG)
- Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 4.21 ERA)
- Bo Bichette (New York Mets) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .256 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
70% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Dallas Wings — WNBA, -420 (70%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-07-11) we went 3-2 on the board. Milwaukee Brewers LOSS. England WIN. Chicago Cubs WIN. Boston Red Sox WIN. Atlanta Braves LOSS. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 27-38 (41.5%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.