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Full transparency

The Track Record

We grade ourselves in public — no cherry-picking, no deleting losers. No other AI pick site does this honestly.

57
Wins
74
Losses
43.5%
Win rate
-11.1%
ROI (flat 1u)
5
Pending

Win rate by confidence

Confident picks 27-38 · 41.5%

Judge us on Strong & Solid leans. Toss-ups are coin-flips we post for fun and to keep learning — tracked honestly, but they should not define the record.

Strong14-13 · 51.9%
Solid13-25 · 34.2%
Lean27-31 · 46.6%
Toss-up0-2
How the model learns

Calibration & self-tuning

Brier score 0.2807 (lower is sharper) across 131 graded picks. The model now self-corrects toward these results.

We predictedPicksActually hit
50-55%2142.9%
55-60%5044.0%
60-65%2245.5%
65-70%1315.4%
70-80%1752.9%
80-100%862.5%

By segment: worldcup 11-12 · mlb 36-56 · wnba 10-6 · Strong 14-13 · Solid 13-25 · Lean 27-31 · Toss-up 0-2

Monthly performance

MonthRecordWin %
2026-0718-2047.4%
2026-0639-5441.9%

Latest results

DateSportMatchupPickModelResult
2026-07-12MLBPhiladelphia Phillies @ Detroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies57%pending
2026-07-12MLBMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers55%pending
2026-07-12MLBBoston Red Sox @ New York MetsBoston Red Sox55%pending
2026-07-11MLBMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers61%loss
2026-07-11WORLDCUPEngland @ NorwayEngland57%win
2026-07-11MLBChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs55%win
2026-07-11MLBBoston Red Sox @ New York MetsBoston Red Sox56%win
2026-07-11MLBAtlanta Braves @ St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves57%loss
2026-07-10MLBChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs61%loss
2026-07-10MLBBoston Red Sox @ New York MetsBoston Red Sox56%win
2026-07-09MLBKansas City Royals @ New York MetsKansas City Royals54%loss
2026-07-09WNBAIndiana Fever @ Phoenix MercuryIndiana Fever58%win
2026-07-09MLBChicago Cubs @ Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs53%loss
2026-07-08MLBPhiladelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies57%loss
2026-07-08MLBAtlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves56%win
2026-07-07WORLDCUPColombia @ SwitzerlandColombia55%loss
2026-07-07MLBAtlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves57%loss
2026-07-07MLBAthletics @ Detroit TigersAthletics57%loss
2026-07-06MLBNew York Mets @ Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves58%loss
2026-07-06MLBMilwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers57%win
2026-07-06WORLDCUPBelgium @ United StatesBelgium58%win
2026-07-05MLBTampa Bay Rays @ Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays55%loss
2026-07-05WORLDCUPEngland @ MexicoEngland62%win
2026-07-04MLBToronto Blue Jays @ Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays55%loss
2026-07-04MLBTampa Bay Rays @ Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays54%loss
2026-07-04WNBAPortland Fire @ Seattle StormPortland Fire62%win
2026-07-04WNBAGolden State Valkyries @ Atlanta DreamGolden State Valkyries56%win
2026-07-03MLBTampa Bay Rays @ Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays57%win
2026-07-03MLBSt. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals54%win
2026-07-03MLBMiami Marlins @ AthleticsMiami Marlins61%win
2026-07-03WORLDCUPGhana @ ColombiaGhana70%loss
2026-07-03WORLDCUPEgypt @ AustraliaEgypt55%loss
2026-07-02MLBSt. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves54%loss
2026-07-02WNBASeattle Storm @ Phoenix MercurySeattle Storm56%loss
2026-07-02MLBSan Diego Padres @ Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres57%loss
2026-07-02MLBLos Angeles Angels @ Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels58%loss
2026-07-01MLBWashington Nationals @ Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals54%win
2026-07-01MLBTampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays58%win
2026-07-01MLBMinnesota Twins @ Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins53%win
2026-07-01WORLDCUPCongo DR @ EnglandEngland71%win

Showing the most recent 40 graded picks. Full history rolls up into the monthly table above.

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