Full transparency
The Track Record
We grade ourselves in public — no cherry-picking, no deleting losers. No other AI pick site does this honestly.
101
Wins
131
Losses
43.5%
Win rate
-8.4%
ROI (flat 1u)
5
Pending
Win rate by confidence
Confident picks 29-50 · 36.7%Judge us on Strong & Solid leans. Toss-ups are coin-flips we post for fun and to keep learning — tracked honestly, but they should not define the record.
Strong14-13 · 51.9%
Solid15-37 · 28.8%
Lean69-76 · 47.6%
Toss-up0-2
How the model learns
Calibration & self-tuning
Brier score 0.2745 (lower is sharper) across 232 graded picks. The model now self-corrects toward these results.
| We predicted | Picks | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 59 | 50.8% |
| 55-60% | 106 | 41.5% |
| 60-65% | 29 | 37.9% |
| 65-70% | 13 | 15.4% |
| 70-80% | 17 | 52.9% |
| 80-100% | 8 | 62.5% |
By segment: worldcup 11-12 · mlb 80-113 · wnba 10-6 · Strong 14-13 · Solid 15-37 · Lean 69-76 · Toss-up 0-2
Monthly performance
| Month | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 19-19 | 50.0% |
| 2026-08 | 23-37 | 38.3% |
| 2026-07 | 20-21 | 48.8% |
| 2026-06 | 39-54 | 41.9% |
Latest results
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Model | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | 55% | pending |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles | 54% | pending |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves | 56% | pending |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Detroit Tigers | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles | 53% | win |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | 53% | loss |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Kansas City Royals | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | MLB | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Colorado Rockies | 55% | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-11 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-11 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-11 | MLB | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-11 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 53% | win |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Tampa Bay Rays | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Angels | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Houston Astros | 54% | win |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | 54% | loss |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 58% | win |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals | 59% | loss |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55% | win |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | 62% | win |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals | 57% | win |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Angels | 57% | loss |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55% | loss |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 55% | loss |
| 2026-09-02 | MLB | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | New York Mets | 56% | win |
| 2026-09-02 | MLB | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Miami Marlins | 53% | win |
| 2026-09-01 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | 56% | loss |
| 2026-09-01 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals | 57% | win |
| 2026-09-01 | MLB | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | 53% | win |
Showing the most recent 40 graded picks. Full history rolls up into the monthly table above.
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