Player props
Player Props
Our model projection for each player and a plain-English lean. These are projections for research, not graded edges — they are excluded from our public win-rate and ROI. Stack the ones you like into a fun slip.
Robert Gasser
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · MLB · 4.15 ERA
Strikeouts 4.5
Over 5.0
56%
hit
Ketel Marte
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · MLB · .259 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Shane Baz
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals · MLB · 4.21 ERA
Strikeouts 4.5
Over 5.0
56%
hit
Bo Bichette
New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox · MLB · .256 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Dustin May
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves · MLB · 4.55 ERA
Strikeouts 4.5
Over 5.0
56%
hit
Taylor Ward
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals · MLB · .256 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
JR Ritchie
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · 4.60 ERA
Strikeouts 5.5
Over 6.0
55%
hit
Chase Meidroth
Chicago White Sox vs Athletics · MLB · .272 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies · MLB · 3.06 ERA
Strikeouts 6.5
Over 7.0
55%
hit
Nick Kurtz
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox · MLB · .266 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers · MLB · 2.28 ERA
Strikeouts 6.5
Over 7.0
55%
hit
Ben Rice
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · MLB · .279 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians · MLB · 3.28 ERA
Strikeouts 6.5
Over 6.9
54%
hit
Randy Arozarena
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · MLB · .288 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Michael Lorenzen
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · MLB · 6.46 ERA
Strikeouts 3.5
Over 3.8
53%
hit
Jo Adell
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · MLB · .247 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
MacKenzie Gore
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · MLB · 4.72 ERA
Strikeouts 5.5
Over 5.8
52%
hit
Sal Stewart
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · MLB · .256 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 1.0
63%
hit
Cristian Javier
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers · MLB · 10.22 ERA
Strikeouts 2.5
Over 2.7
51%
hit
Josh Bell
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels · MLB · .250 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 0.9
59%
hit
Payton Tolle
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets · MLB · 3.14 ERA
Strikeouts 5.5
Over 5.7
51%
hit
Brayan Rocchio
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · MLB · .274 AVG
Hits 0.5
Over 0.9
59%
hit
Kevin Gausman
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres · MLB · 4.32 ERA
Strikeouts 5.5
Over 5.7
51%
hit
Otto Lopez
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians · MLB · .339 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.4
41%
hit
Taj Bradley
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels · MLB · 3.67 ERA
Strikeouts 6.5
Over 6.6
49%
hit
Luis Arraez
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies · MLB · .332 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.3
37%
hit
Paul Skenes
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · MLB · 3.58 ERA
Strikeouts 6.0
Over 6.5
47%
hit
Yandy Díaz
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · MLB · .320 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.2
34%
hit
Ian Seymour
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · MLB · 4.11 ERA
Strikeouts 14.0
Over 14.4
47%
hit
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies · MLB · .285 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Mitch Bratt
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · MLB · 3.00 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.5
47%
hit
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers · MLB · .304 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Cade Cavalli
Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees · MLB · 3.88 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.5
47%
hit
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB · .293 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Matthew Boyd
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds · MLB · 4.31 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.5
47%
hit
Nick Gonzales
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · MLB · .306 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Emmet Sheehan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB · 4.91 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.4
45%
hit
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · MLB · .282 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Emerson Hancock
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · MLB · 3.23 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.4
45%
hit
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets · MLB · .282 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Seth Lugo
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · 4.56 ERA
Strikeouts 4.0
Over 4.4
45%
hit
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · .285 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Germán Márquez
San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays · MLB · 5.02 ERA
Strikeouts 3.0
Over 3.4
44%
hit
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves · MLB · .294 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Zach Thornton
New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox · MLB · 4.35 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.3
44%
hit
Michael Harris II
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · .300 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Noah Schultz
Chicago White Sox vs Athletics · MLB · 6.00 ERA
Strikeouts 4.0
Over 4.3
43%
hit
James Wood
Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees · MLB · .278 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · MLB · 3.92 ERA
Strikeouts 4.0
Over 4.3
43%
hit
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · MLB · .298 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Will Warren
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · MLB · 4.15 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.2
42%
hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.
San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays · MLB · .280 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Trevor McDonald
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies · MLB · 5.46 ERA
Strikeouts 4.0
Over 4.2
41%
hit
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres · MLB · .297 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
José Soriano
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · MLB · 3.40 ERA
Strikeouts 6.0
Over 6.1
41%
hit
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds · MLB · .290 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
J.T. Ginn
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox · MLB · 3.10 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.1
40%
hit
Josh Jung
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · MLB · .294 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Joey Cantillo
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · MLB · 3.66 ERA
Strikeouts 5.0
Over 5.1
40%
hit
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers · MLB · .315 AVG
Hits 1.0
Over 1.1
30%
hit
Model projections — not graded edges. The line shown is our own projection benchmark, not a live sportsbook prop line, and the “hit %” is a Poisson estimate from each player's season rate. These are for research and for building fun slips — they are not tracked in our public win-rate or ROI record. Real sportsbook prop lines are on the roadmap.
Prop slips (for fun)
Safe prop parlay+296
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits63%
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Hits63%
Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Hits63%
25%combined hit
$39.6on $10
3legs
Our three highest-probability prop leans today, stacked.
Longshot prop parlay+3567
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.0 Hits30%
Josh Jung Over 1.0 Hits30%
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.0 Hits30%
3%combined hit
$366.69on $10
3legs
Lower-probability leans with a bigger payout if they all land.
Built from model projections, not graded edges — not counted in our public record.
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