Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-08-24
2026-08-24 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 10 games today (10 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Washington Nationals over Colorado Rockies at 55% (-180) — a modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. pitching matchup: cade cavalli (3.22 era) vs ryan feltner (5.97 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Washington Nationals to beat Colorado Rockies — 55% (-180, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cade Cavalli (3.22 ERA) vs Ryan Feltner (5.97 ERA).
- Tampa Bay Rays to beat Detroit Tigers — 55% (-128, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez (4.35 ERA) vs Drew Rasmussen (3.01 ERA).
- Philadelphia Phillies to beat Seattle Mariners — 53% (-109, Lean lean). A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Logan Gilbert (3.35 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (2.92 ERA).
- Chicago Cubs to beat Arizona Diamondbacks — 51% (-134, Toss-up lean). Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly (5.37 ERA) vs Kevin Gausman (4.38 ERA).
- Chicago White Sox to beat Texas Rangers — 51% (-126, Toss-up lean). Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press.
Player props to watch
- Kumar Rocker (Texas Rangers) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 4.46 ERA)
- TJ Rumfield (Colorado Rockies) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .287 AVG)
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 3.22 ERA)
- Josh Naylor (Seattle Mariners) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .267 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
16% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Washington Nationals — MLB, -180 (55%)
- Tampa Bay Rays — MLB, -128 (55%)
- Philadelphia Phillies — MLB, -109 (53%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-08-23) we went 4-2 on the board. Tampa Bay Rays WIN. San Francisco Giants LOSS. Pittsburgh Pirates LOSS. Chicago Cubs WIN. Atlanta Braves WIN. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 28-49 (36.4%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.