Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 16 games today (16 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Los Angeles Dodgers over Washington Nationals at 65% (-279) — a 65% lean with real separation between these two. pitching matchup: blake snell (2.42 era) vs jackson kent (5.59 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers to beat Washington Nationals — 65% (-279, Solid lean). A 65% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Blake Snell (2.42 ERA) vs Jackson Kent (5.59 ERA).
- Tampa Bay Rays to beat Texas Rangers — 62% (+101, Solid lean). A 62% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Trevor Williams (20.25 ERA) vs Nick Martinez (2.99 ERA).
- St. Louis Cardinals to beat Colorado Rockies — 57% (-122, Lean lean). A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Ryan Feltner (5.84 ERA) vs Andre Pallante (3.57 ERA).
- Los Angeles Angels to beat Pittsburgh Pirates — 57% (+171, Lean lean). A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Jared Jones (4.83 ERA) vs Ryan Johnson (5.47 ERA).
- Arizona Diamondbacks to beat Houston Astros — 55% (+116, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cristian Javier (6.45 ERA) vs Merrill Kelly (5.08 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Matt Wilkinson (San Francisco Giants) — Over 1.5 Strikeouts (proj 2.0, 4.63 ERA)
- CJ Abrams (Washington Nationals) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .267 AVG)
- Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals) — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (proj 4.0, 3.57 ERA)
- Brandon Nimmo (Texas Rangers) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .268 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
40% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Los Angeles Dodgers — MLB, -279 (65%)
- Tampa Bay Rays — MLB, +101 (62%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-09-03) we went 0-1 on the board. Milwaukee Brewers LOSS. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 28-49 (36.4%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.