Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

The model lands on Arizona Diamondbacks here, giving them a 54% chance to come out on top against San Francisco Giants. A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg.

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: San Francisco Giants sit 55-80 (0.407), Arizona Diamondbacks 72-64 (0.529).
• Last 10: San Francisco Giants 4-6 (L1), Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: San Francisco Giants -73, Arizona Diamondbacks +4 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: San Francisco Giants hand the ball to TBD; Arizona Diamondbacks counter with Mitch Bratt. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to San Francisco Giants in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Arizona Diamondbacks. It is a slight lean at 54% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.