Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves grade out as the side to be on versus Philadelphia Phillies, at 58% to win. A modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (4.93 ERA) vs Tyler Mahle (1.48 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Philadelphia Phillies sit 80-62 (0.563), Atlanta Braves 84-58 (0.592).
• Last 10: Philadelphia Phillies 7-3 (W1), Atlanta Braves 7-3 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Philadelphia Phillies +35, Atlanta Braves +119 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola; Atlanta Braves counter with Tyler Mahle. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Philadelphia Phillies in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Atlanta Braves. It is a slight lean at 58% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.