Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals

Baltimore Orioles grade out as the side to be on versus St. Louis Cardinals, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Michael McGreevy (3.54 ERA) vs Kyle Bradish (3.70 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: St. Louis Cardinals sit 66-67 (0.496), Baltimore Orioles 64-68 (0.485).
• Last 10: St. Louis Cardinals 4-6 (L4), Baltimore Orioles 5-5 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals -14, Baltimore Orioles -23 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to Michael McGreevy; Baltimore Orioles counter with Kyle Bradish. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to St. Louis Cardinals in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Baltimore Orioles to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 51% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.