Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays grade out as the side to be on versus Baltimore Orioles, at 55% to win. A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Shane McClanahan (3.09 ERA) vs Brandon Young (3.33 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Tampa Bay Rays sit 74-49 (0.602), Baltimore Orioles 61-63 (0.492).
• Last 10: Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 (L3), Baltimore Orioles 5-5 (W3). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Tampa Bay Rays +52, Baltimore Orioles -26 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Tampa Bay Rays hand the ball to Shane McClanahan; Baltimore Orioles counter with Brandon Young. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Tampa Bay Rays in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Tampa Bay Rays. It is a slight lean at 55% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.