Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago White Sox grade out as the side to be on versus St. Louis Cardinals, at 52% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 52% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Matthew Liberatore (5.57 ERA) vs Anthony Kay (4.47 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: St. Louis Cardinals sit 72-75 (0.490), Chicago White Sox 75-71 (0.514).
• Last 10: St. Louis Cardinals 4-6 (L3), Chicago White Sox 3-7 (L3). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals -12, Chicago White Sox +39 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to Matthew Liberatore; Chicago White Sox counter with Anthony Kay. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to St. Louis Cardinals in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 52% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.