MLB · 2026-09-10
Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium
Colorado Rockies
55-90
VS
New York Yankees
83-62
68%
New York Yankees win probability · -280
Tale of the tape
32%Win probability68%
0.379Win %0.572
-147Run differential+124
Strong-280 · LowVig.ag
New York Yankees to win
The market (74%) rates this higher than our model (68%) — no real edge, so we pass.
New York Yankees grade out as the side to be on versus Colorado Rockies, at 68% to win. A clear 68% edge — one of the cleaner spots on the board. Pitching matchup: Max Fried (2.73 ERA) vs Ryan Feltner (5.91 ERA).
Why we lean this way
- Form & record: New York Yankees sit 83-62 (0.572), Colorado Rockies 55-90 (0.379).
- Last 10: New York Yankees 7-3 (W2), Colorado Rockies 3-7 (L3). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
- Run differential: New York Yankees +124, Colorado Rockies -147 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
- On the mound: New York Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried; Colorado Rockies counter with Ryan Feltner. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
- Home field: worth about +3.5% to New York Yankees in our model.
The verdict
Bottom line: New York Yankees to win is a strong lean. Treat it like a 68% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.
Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.
Get the daily edge in your inbox
Every morning: the day's best bets, the smart fun parlay, and what's worth watching — free, no spam.
21+. Informational and entertainment content only.
