Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates grade out as the side to be on versus Detroit Tigers, at 50% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 50% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski (3.79 ERA) vs Framber Valdez (4.26 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Pittsburgh Pirates sit 61-65 (0.484), Detroit Tigers 60-64 (0.484).
• Last 10: Pittsburgh Pirates 4-6 (W1), Detroit Tigers 5-5 (L3). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Pittsburgh Pirates +30, Detroit Tigers +83 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Pittsburgh Pirates hand the ball to Carmen Mlodzinski; Detroit Tigers counter with Framber Valdez. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Pittsburgh Pirates in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Pittsburgh Pirates. It is a near coin-flip at 50% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.