Houston Astros vs New York Mets

New York Mets grade out as the side to be on versus Houston Astros, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Nolan McLean (3.21 ERA) vs Bennett Sousa (6.27 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: New York Mets sit 60-75 (0.444), Houston Astros 68-67 (0.504).
• Last 10: New York Mets 4-6 (L3), Houston Astros 5-5 (W2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: New York Mets -54, Houston Astros -42 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: New York Mets hand the ball to Nolan McLean; Houston Astros counter with Bennett Sousa. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to New York Mets in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: New York Mets. It is a near coin-flip at 51% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.