Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers grade out as the side to be on versus Cincinnati Reds, at 54% to win. A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Andrew Abbott (4.78 ERA) vs Blake Snell (1.91 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Cincinnati Reds sit 70-81 (0.464), Los Angeles Dodgers 92-59 (0.609).
• Last 10: Cincinnati Reds 3-7 (L2), Los Angeles Dodgers 8-2 (W2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Cincinnati Reds -152, Los Angeles Dodgers +177 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Cincinnati Reds hand the ball to Andrew Abbott; Los Angeles Dodgers counter with Blake Snell. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Cincinnati Reds in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Los Angeles Dodgers. It is a slight lean at 54% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.