Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks grade out as the side to be on versus Miami Marlins, at 54% to win. A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Corbin Burnes (0.00 ERA) vs Sandy Alcantara (3.78 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Arizona Diamondbacks sit 79-71 (0.527), Miami Marlins 74-76 (0.493).
• Last 10: Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 (L2), Miami Marlins 3-7 (W2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Arizona Diamondbacks +2, Miami Marlins +6 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to Corbin Burnes; Miami Marlins counter with Sandy Alcantara. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Arizona Diamondbacks in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Arizona Diamondbacks. It is a slight lean at 54% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.