Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks grade out as the side to be on versus Miami Marlins, at 53% to win. A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly (4.97 ERA) vs Ryan Gusto (4.14 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Arizona Diamondbacks sit 80-72 (0.526), Miami Marlins 75-77 (0.493).
• Last 10: Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 (L1), Miami Marlins 4-6 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Arizona Diamondbacks +1, Miami Marlins +7 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly; Miami Marlins counter with Ryan Gusto. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Arizona Diamondbacks in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Arizona Diamondbacks. It is a slight lean at 53% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.