New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies grade out as the side to be on versus New York Mets, at 63% to win. A 63% lean with real separation between these two.

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Philadelphia Phillies sit 40-34 (0.541), New York Mets 33-41 (0.446).
• Last 10: Philadelphia Phillies 6-4 (L1), New York Mets 5-5 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Philadelphia Phillies -18, New York Mets -17 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola; New York Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Philadelphia Phillies in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Philadelphia Phillies to win is a solid lean. Treat it like a 63% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.