New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels

The model lands on New York Yankees here, giving them a 58% chance to come out on top against Los Angeles Angels. A modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Grayson Rodriguez (6.03 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (3.19 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Angels sit 53-85 (0.384), New York Yankees 78-60 (0.565).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Angels 2-8 (W1), New York Yankees 5-5 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Angels -73, New York Yankees +108 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Angels hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez; New York Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Angels in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: New York Yankees. It is a slight lean at 58% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.