Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks grade out as the side to be on versus Philadelphia Phillies, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (2.50 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.09 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Arizona Diamondbacks sit 73-66 (0.525), Philadelphia Phillies 78-60 (0.565).
• Last 10: Arizona Diamondbacks 5-5 (L2), Philadelphia Phillies 8-2 (W5). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Arizona Diamondbacks +4, Philadelphia Phillies +31 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez; Philadelphia Phillies counter with Jesús Luzardo. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Arizona Diamondbacks in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Arizona Diamondbacks to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 51% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.