Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies grade out as the side to be on versus Arizona Diamondbacks, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Taylor Clarke (2.60 ERA) vs Andrew Painter (5.95 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Arizona Diamondbacks sit 73-67 (0.521), Philadelphia Phillies 79-60 (0.568).
• Last 10: Arizona Diamondbacks 5-5 (L3), Philadelphia Phillies 8-2 (W6). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Arizona Diamondbacks -2, Philadelphia Phillies +37 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to Taylor Clarke; Philadelphia Phillies counter with Andrew Painter. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Arizona Diamondbacks in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Philadelphia Phillies to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 51% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.