Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies grade out as the side to be on versus Atlanta Braves, at 56% to win. A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Chris Sale (2.10 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (4.76 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Atlanta Braves sit 86-61 (0.585), Philadelphia Phillies 82-65 (0.558).
• Last 10: Atlanta Braves 4-6 (W1), Philadelphia Phillies 5-5 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Atlanta Braves +110, Philadelphia Phillies +37 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Atlanta Braves hand the ball to Chris Sale; Philadelphia Phillies counter with Aaron Nola. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Atlanta Braves in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Philadelphia Phillies to win is a slight lean. Treat it like a 56% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.