Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies grade out as the side to be on versus Washington Nationals, at 53% to win. A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Jared Simpson (6.75 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (3.14 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Washington Nationals sit 71-81 (0.467), Philadelphia Phillies 83-68 (0.550).
• Last 10: Washington Nationals 4-6 (W4), Philadelphia Phillies 4-6 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Washington Nationals +6, Philadelphia Phillies +28 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Washington Nationals hand the ball to Jared Simpson; Philadelphia Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Washington Nationals in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Philadelphia Phillies. It is a slight lean at 53% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.