Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates grade out as the side to be on versus Los Angeles Dodgers, at 62% to win. A 62% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Blake Snell (3.60 ERA) vs Lake Bachar (3.84 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Dodgers sit 79-51 (0.608), Pittsburgh Pirates 63-68 (0.481).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Dodgers 7-3 (W5), Pittsburgh Pirates 5-5 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +147, Pittsburgh Pirates +29 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Blake Snell; Pittsburgh Pirates counter with Lake Bachar. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Dodgers in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Pittsburgh Pirates. It is a solid lean at 62% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.