Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

The model lands on St. Louis Cardinals here, giving them a 51% chance to come out on top against Pittsburgh Pirates. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Kyle Leahy (3.13 ERA) vs Lake Bachar (3.84 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: St. Louis Cardinals sit 68-68 (0.500), Pittsburgh Pirates 65-71 (0.478).
• Last 10: St. Louis Cardinals 4-6 (W2), Pittsburgh Pirates 4-6 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals -10, Pittsburgh Pirates +21 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to Kyle Leahy; Pittsburgh Pirates counter with Lake Bachar. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to St. Louis Cardinals in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a near coin-flip at 51% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.