San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres grade out as the side to be on versus San Francisco Giants, at 56% to win. A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Anthony Molina (5.40 ERA) vs Robbie Ray (3.08 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: San Francisco Giants sit 62-85 (0.422), San Diego Padres 78-68 (0.534).
• Last 10: San Francisco Giants 6-4 (W3), San Diego Padres 6-4 (W4). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: San Francisco Giants -72, San Diego Padres +17 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: San Francisco Giants hand the ball to Anthony Molina; San Diego Padres counter with Robbie Ray. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to San Francisco Giants in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: San Diego Padres. It is a slight lean at 56% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.