St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs grade out as the side to be on versus St. Louis Cardinals, at 55% to win. A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Matthew Boyd (3.50 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (3.64 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Chicago Cubs sit 72-51 (0.585), St. Louis Cardinals 61-61 (0.500).
• Last 10: Chicago Cubs 8-2 (W1), St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Chicago Cubs +111, St. Louis Cardinals -4 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Chicago Cubs hand the ball to Matthew Boyd; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Chicago Cubs in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Chicago Cubs to win is a slight lean. Treat it like a 55% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.