St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals grade out as the side to be on versus Cincinnati Reds, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Andrew Abbott (4.13 ERA) vs Kyle Leahy (3.38 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Cincinnati Reds sit 60-65 (0.480), St. Louis Cardinals 64-62 (0.508).
• Last 10: Cincinnati Reds 4-6 (W1), St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Cincinnati Reds -86, St. Louis Cardinals +7 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Cincinnati Reds hand the ball to Andrew Abbott; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Cincinnati Reds in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a near coin-flip at 51% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.