St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals grade out as the side to be on versus Colorado Rockies, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Mason Adams (3.00 ERA) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.41 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Colorado Rockies sit 54-87 (0.383), St. Louis Cardinals 71-71 (0.500).
• Last 10: Colorado Rockies 4-6 (L1), St. Louis Cardinals 5-5 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Colorado Rockies -141, St. Louis Cardinals -8 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Colorado Rockies hand the ball to Mason Adams; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Matthew Liberatore. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Colorado Rockies in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: St. Louis Cardinals to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 51% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.