St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

The model lands on St. Louis Cardinals here, giving them a 56% chance to come out on top against Colorado Rockies. A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Tanner Gordon (5.18 ERA) vs Kyle Leahy (3.13 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Colorado Rockies sit 55-87 (0.387), St. Louis Cardinals 71-72 (0.497).
• Last 10: Colorado Rockies 4-6 (W1), St. Louis Cardinals 5-5 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Colorado Rockies -138, St. Louis Cardinals -11 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Colorado Rockies hand the ball to Tanner Gordon; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Colorado Rockies in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: St. Louis Cardinals to win is a slight lean. Treat it like a 56% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.