St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals

The model lands on St. Louis Cardinals here, giving them a 65% chance to come out on top against Kansas City Royals. A 65% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (3.86 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (2.99 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Kansas City Royals sit 31-45 (0.408), St. Louis Cardinals 40-33 (0.548).
• Last 10: Kansas City Royals 4-6 (W2), St. Louis Cardinals 5-5 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Kansas City Royals -43, St. Louis Cardinals +3 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Kansas City Royals hand the ball to Seth Lugo; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Kansas City Royals in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a solid lean at 65% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.