St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Our read leans St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers — a 57% win probability once everything is weighed. A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Eric Lauer (6.69 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (3.86 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Dodgers sit 82-55 (0.599), St. Louis Cardinals 68-70 (0.493).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 (W1), St. Louis Cardinals 3-7 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +153, St. Louis Cardinals -15 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Eric Lauer; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Dodgers in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a slight lean at 57% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.