St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers grade out as the side to be on versus St. Louis Cardinals, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal (3.00 ERA) vs Quinn Mathews (5.03 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Dodgers sit 82-57 (0.590), St. Louis Cardinals 70-70 (0.500).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Dodgers 4-6 (L2), St. Louis Cardinals 4-6 (W2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +146, St. Louis Cardinals -8 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Tarik Skubal; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Quinn Mathews. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Dodgers in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Los Angeles Dodgers. It is a near coin-flip at 51% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.