St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Our read leans Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals — a 54% win probability once everything is weighed. A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg.

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Philadelphia Phillies sit 70-58 (0.547), St. Louis Cardinals 66-63 (0.512).
• Last 10: Philadelphia Phillies 8-2 (W6), St. Louis Cardinals 7-3 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Philadelphia Phillies +15, St. Louis Cardinals +10 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to Jesús Luzardo; St. Louis Cardinals counter with TBD. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Philadelphia Phillies in our model.

The verdict

Where we land: Philadelphia Phillies, a slight lean. A 54% edge is worth backing, but variance is real — keep stakes reasonable.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.