MLB · 2026-08-22
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park
St. Louis Cardinals
66-64
VS
Philadelphia Phillies
71-58
51%
Philadelphia Phillies win probability · -146
Tale of the tape
49%Win probability51%
0.508Win %0.550
+9Run differential+16
Toss-up-146 · MyBookie.ag
Philadelphia Phillies to win
The market (59%) rates this higher than our model (51%) — no real edge, so we pass.
Our read leans Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals — a 51% win probability once everything is weighed. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press.
Why we lean this way
- Form & record: Philadelphia Phillies sit 71-58 (0.550), St. Louis Cardinals 66-64 (0.508).
- Last 10: Philadelphia Phillies 8-2 (W7), St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 (L1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
- Run differential: Philadelphia Phillies +16, St. Louis Cardinals +9 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
- On the mound: Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to Andrew Painter; St. Louis Cardinals counter with TBD. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
- Home field: worth about +3.5% to Philadelphia Phillies in our model.
The verdict
The play we like: Philadelphia Phillies. It is a near coin-flip at 51% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.
Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.
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