St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Our read leans Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals — a 54% win probability once everything is weighed. A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cristopher Sánchez (2.51 ERA) vs Kyle Leahy (3.24 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Philadelphia Phillies sit 72-58 (0.554), St. Louis Cardinals 66-65 (0.504).
• Last 10: Philadelphia Phillies 8-2 (W8), St. Louis Cardinals 5-5 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Philadelphia Phillies +25, St. Louis Cardinals +0 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to Cristopher Sánchez; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Philadelphia Phillies in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Philadelphia Phillies. It is a slight lean at 54% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.