St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals grade out as the side to be on versus San Francisco Giants, at 56% to win. A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Logan Webb (4.21 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: San Francisco Giants sit 59-85 (0.410), St. Louis Cardinals 72-72 (0.500).
• Last 10: San Francisco Giants 4-6 (L1), St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: San Francisco Giants -75, St. Louis Cardinals -9 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: San Francisco Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb; St. Louis Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to San Francisco Giants in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: St. Louis Cardinals. It is a slight lean at 56% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.