Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

New York Yankees grade out as the side to be on versus Toronto Blue Jays, at 51% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Carlos Rodón (3.22 ERA) vs José Soriano (2.76 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: New York Yankees sit 73-56 (0.566), Toronto Blue Jays 64-67 (0.489).
• Last 10: New York Yankees 6-4 (L1), Toronto Blue Jays 6-4 (W1). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: New York Yankees +95, Toronto Blue Jays -50 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: New York Yankees hand the ball to Carlos Rodón; Toronto Blue Jays counter with José Soriano. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to New York Yankees in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: New York Yankees to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 51% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.