Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington Nationals grade out as the side to be on versus Los Angeles Dodgers, at 59% to win. A 59% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Tyler Glasnow (2.79 ERA) vs Cade Cavalli (3.12 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Dodgers sit 84-57 (0.596), Washington Nationals 67-76 (0.469).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Dodgers 4-6 (W2), Washington Nationals 5-5 (L2). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +149, Washington Nationals +12 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow; Washington Nationals counter with Cade Cavalli. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Dodgers in our model.

The verdict

The play we like: Washington Nationals. It is a solid lean at 59% — good value, not a lock. Bet what is fun to lose.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.