Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers grade out as the side to be on versus Washington Nationals, at 53% to win. Essentially a coin flip at 53% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Justin Wrobleski (3.65 ERA) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.47 ERA).

Why we lean this way

• Form & record: Los Angeles Dodgers sit 85-57 (0.599), Washington Nationals 67-77 (0.465).
• Last 10: Los Angeles Dodgers 5-5 (W3), Washington Nationals 5-5 (L3). Hot streaks move these lines fast.
• Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +150, Washington Nationals +11 on the year — the most honest measure of how good a team actually is, beyond their record.
• On the mound: Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Justin Wrobleski; Washington Nationals counter with Andrew Alvarez. Starting pitching swings a baseball game more than any other factor.
• Home field: worth about +3.5% to Los Angeles Dodgers in our model.

The verdict

Bottom line: Los Angeles Dodgers to win is a near coin-flip. Treat it like a 53% spot — not a sure thing, because there is no such thing. Size it sensibly and enjoy the game.

Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.