WNBA · 2026-06-19
Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries
Chase Center
Minnesota Lynx
12-3
VS
Golden State Valkyries
10-5
61%
Minnesota Lynx win probability · -140
Tale of the tape
61%Win probability39%
80%Win rate67%
Solid-140 · LowVig.ag
Minnesota Lynx to win
Model (61%) and the market (58%) agree here — a fairly priced side, not a value spot.
The model lands on Minnesota Lynx here, giving them a 61% chance to come out on top against Golden State Valkyries. A 61% lean with real separation between these two.
Why we lean this way
- Records: Golden State Valkyries 10-5 at home vs Minnesota Lynx 12-3.
- Home court: weighted at +6% for Golden State Valkyries — home advantage swings bigger in the WNBA than most leagues.
- Venue: Chase Center.
The verdict
Where we land: Minnesota Lynx, a solid lean. A 61% edge is worth backing, but variance is real — keep stakes reasonable.
Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.
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