WNBA · 2026-07-12
New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo
Bell Centre
New York Liberty
13-10
VS
Toronto Tempo
9-13
51%
Toronto Tempo win probability · -250
Tale of the tape
49%Win probability51%
57%Win rate41%
Toss-up-250 · BetRivers
Toronto Tempo to win
The market (71%) rates this higher than our model (51%) — no real edge, so we pass.
Our read leans Toronto Tempo over New York Liberty — a 51% win probability once everything is weighed. Essentially a coin flip at 51% — entertainment only, not a spot to press.
Why we lean this way
- Records: Toronto Tempo 9-13 at home vs New York Liberty 13-10.
- Home court: weighted at +6% for Toronto Tempo — home advantage swings bigger in the WNBA than most leagues.
- Venue: Bell Centre.
The verdict
Where we land: Toronto Tempo, a near coin-flip. A 51% edge is worth backing, but variance is real — keep stakes reasonable.
Logged to our public track record and graded after the final. We analyze; we never take wagers. 21+.
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