Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-08-23
2026-08-23 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 15 games today (15 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles Dodgers at 62% (+257) — a 62% lean with real separation between these two. pitching matchup: blake snell (3.60 era) vs lake bachar (3.84 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates to beat Los Angeles Dodgers — 62% (+257, Solid lean). A 62% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Blake Snell (3.60 ERA) vs Lake Bachar (3.84 ERA).
- San Francisco Giants to beat Boston Red Sox — 59% (+195, Solid lean). A 59% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Jake Bennett (3.46 ERA) vs Matt Wilkinson (0.00 ERA).
- Athletics to beat Houston Astros — 56% (+166, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cristian Javier (6.44 ERA) vs Brady Basso (3.91 ERA).
- Tampa Bay Rays to beat Baltimore Orioles — 56% (-106, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Shane Baz (4.02 ERA) vs Nick Martinez (3.05 ERA).
- Texas Rangers to beat Los Angeles Angels — 54% (-154, Lean lean). A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cal Quantrill (3.13 ERA) vs Yusei Kikuchi (5.81 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Cal Quantrill (Texas Rangers) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 3.13 ERA)
- Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .273 AVG)
- Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.8, 3.71 ERA)
- Brandon Nimmo (Texas Rangers) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .264 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
36% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Pittsburgh Pirates — MLB, +257 (62%)
- San Francisco Giants — MLB, +195 (59%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-08-22) we went 1-3 on the board. Washington Nationals LOSS. Minnesota Twins LOSS. Cincinnati Reds WIN. Chicago Cubs LOSS. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 28-47 (37.3%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.