Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-09-07
2026-09-07 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 5 games today (5 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants at 56% (+115) — a modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. pitching matchup: logan webb (4.21 era) vs michael mcgreevy (3.97 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- St. Louis Cardinals to beat San Francisco Giants — 56% (+115, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Logan Webb (4.21 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA).
- San Diego Padres to beat Washington Nationals — 55% (-192, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (4.50 ERA) vs Jake Irvin (5.57 ERA).
- Los Angeles Dodgers to beat Cincinnati Reds — 54% (-170, Lean lean). A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg.
- Toronto Blue Jays to beat Athletics — 52% (-200, Toss-up lean). Essentially a coin flip at 52% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Jacob Lopez (4.71 ERA) vs Dylan Cease (2.25 ERA).
- Detroit Tigers to beat Minnesota Twins — 52% (-118, Toss-up lean). Essentially a coin flip at 52% — entertainment only, not a spot to press. Pitching matchup: Troy Melton (2.20 ERA) vs Joe Ryan (3.65 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 4.50 ERA)
- Rafael Devers (San Francisco Giants) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .258 AVG)
- Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 3.65 ERA)
- Daylen Lile (Washington Nationals) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .256 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
16% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- St. Louis Cardinals — MLB, +115 (56%)
- San Diego Padres — MLB, -192 (55%)
- Los Angeles Dodgers — MLB, -170 (54%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-09-06) we went 1-2 on the board. Tampa Bay Rays LOSS. San Francisco Giants LOSS. Atlanta Braves WIN. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 29-50 (36.7%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.