Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-09-13
2026-09-13 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 14 games today (14 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Kansas City Royals over Boston Red Sox at 57% (+166) — a modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. pitching matchup: payton tolle (3.15 era) vs noah cameron (3.93 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Kansas City Royals to beat Boston Red Sox — 57% (+166, Lean lean). A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA) vs Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA).
- New York Yankees to beat New York Mets — 55% (-171, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Cam Schlittler (2.01 ERA) vs Christian Scott (3.81 ERA).
- San Diego Padres to beat San Francisco Giants — 54% (-125, Lean lean). A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Logan Webb (4.10 ERA) vs Nick Pivetta (3.43 ERA).
- Los Angeles Angels to beat Washington Nationals — 53% (+122, Lean lean). A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Riley Cornelio (5.26 ERA) vs Grayson Rodriguez (6.28 ERA).
- Milwaukee Brewers to beat Cincinnati Reds — 53% (-190, Lean lean). A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Robert Gasser (4.43 ERA) vs Chase Burns (2.73 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Jacob Lopez (Athletics) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 4.78 ERA)
- Ben Rice (New York Yankees) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .259 AVG)
- Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 3.68 ERA)
- Bo Bichette (New York Mets) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .263 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
17% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Kansas City Royals — MLB, +166 (57%)
- New York Yankees — MLB, -171 (55%)
- San Diego Padres — MLB, -125 (54%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-09-12) we went 0-2 on the board. Colorado Rockies LOSS. Cleveland Guardians LOSS. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 29-50 (36.7%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.