Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-09-06
2026-09-06 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 14 games today (14 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies at 58% (-104) — a modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. pitching matchup: aaron nola (4.93 era) vs tyler mahle (1.48 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Atlanta Braves to beat Philadelphia Phillies — 58% (-104, Lean lean). A modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (4.93 ERA) vs Tyler Mahle (1.48 ERA).
- St. Louis Cardinals to beat Colorado Rockies — 56% (-127, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Tanner Gordon (5.18 ERA) vs Kyle Leahy (3.13 ERA).
- San Francisco Giants to beat New York Mets — 56% (+152, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Christian Scott (3.80 ERA) vs Cesar Perdomo (2.25 ERA).
- Seattle Mariners to beat Athletics — 55% (-192, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Bryan Woo (4.25 ERA) vs Gage Jump (5.15 ERA).
- Tampa Bay Rays to beat Texas Rangers — 54% (-105, Lean lean). A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: MacKenzie Gore (4.31 ERA) vs Ian Seymour (4.21 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Michael King (San Diego Padres) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 3.11 ERA)
- Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .275 AVG)
- Tanner Gordon (Colorado Rockies) — Over 8.5 Strikeouts (proj 9.0, 5.18 ERA)
- TJ Rumfield (Colorado Rockies) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .295 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
18% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Atlanta Braves — MLB, -104 (58%)
- St. Louis Cardinals — MLB, -127 (56%)
- San Francisco Giants — MLB, +152 (56%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-09-05) we went 4-2 on the board. Washington Nationals LOSS. Tampa Bay Rays WIN. San Francisco Giants WIN. Detroit Tigers WIN. Atlanta Braves LOSS. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 29-50 (36.7%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.