Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-09-16
2026-09-16 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 12 games today (12 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates at 58% (-118) — a modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. pitching matchup: jared jones (4.10 era) vs logan henderson (2.34 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Milwaukee Brewers to beat Pittsburgh Pirates — 58% (-118, Lean lean). A modest 58% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Jared Jones (4.10 ERA) vs Logan Henderson (2.34 ERA).
- Detroit Tigers to beat Toronto Blue Jays — 57% (+116, Lean lean). A modest 57% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (6.38 ERA) vs Keider Montero (3.55 ERA).
- Baltimore Orioles to beat New York Mets — 55% (+115, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Robert Stock (5.93 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (4.88 ERA).
- Los Angeles Dodgers to beat Cincinnati Reds — 54% (-210, Lean lean). A modest 54% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Andrew Abbott (4.78 ERA) vs Blake Snell (1.91 ERA).
- Philadelphia Phillies to beat Washington Nationals — 53% (-188, Lean lean). A modest 53% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Jared Simpson (6.75 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (3.14 ERA).
Player props to watch
- Andrew Abbott (Cincinnati Reds) — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (proj 4.0, 4.78 ERA)
- Ernie Clement (Toronto Blue Jays) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .269 AVG)
- Daniel Lynch IV (Kansas City Royals) — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (proj 7.0, 3.52 ERA)
- Kevin McGonigle (Detroit Tigers) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .273 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
18% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Milwaukee Brewers — MLB, -118 (58%)
- Detroit Tigers — MLB, +116 (57%)
- Baltimore Orioles — MLB, +115 (55%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-09-15) we went 3-0 on the board. San Francisco Giants WIN. Baltimore Orioles WIN. Atlanta Braves WIN. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 29-50 (36.7%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.